Elevated crude oil prices near $90–100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and constrained Middle East supply, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. retail gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Tight global refined product inventories, reduced refinery capacity utilization, and elevated crack spreads have slowed the pass-through of any crude relief to pump prices, with the lowest state averages currently around $3.92–$3.96 in places like Indiana and Texas. Seasonal demand, regional distribution costs, and low distillate stocks continue to support higher levels. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory data, potential geopolitical de-escalation, and upcoming refinery output reports for shifts that could pressure prices toward the $3.75 threshold in any state.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
20. Sep. 2026
20. September
5%
30. September
37%
31. Oktober
24%
$762 Vol.
20. September
$468 Vol.
5%
30. September
$60 Vol.
37%
31. Oktober
$234 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $90–100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and constrained Middle East supply, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. retail gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Tight global refined product inventories, reduced refinery capacity utilization, and elevated crack spreads have slowed the pass-through of any crude relief to pump prices, with the lowest state averages currently around $3.92–$3.96 in places like Indiana and Texas. Seasonal demand, regional distribution costs, and low distillate stocks continue to support higher levels. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory data, potential geopolitical de-escalation, and upcoming refinery output reports for shifts that could pressure prices toward the $3.75 threshold in any state.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET
Volumen
$762Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $90–100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and constrained Middle East supply, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. retail gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Tight global refined product inventories, reduced refinery capacity utilization, and elevated crack spreads have slowed the pass-through of any crude relief to pump prices, with the lowest state averages currently around $3.92–$3.96 in places like Indiana and Texas. Seasonal demand, regional distribution costs, and low distillate stocks continue to support higher levels. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory data, potential geopolitical de-escalation, and upcoming refinery output reports for shifts that could pressure prices toward the $3.75 threshold in any state.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volumen
$762Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices near $90–100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and constrained Middle East supply, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. retail gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Tight global refined product inventories, reduced refinery capacity utilization, and elevated crack spreads have slowed the pass-through of any crude relief to pump prices, with the lowest state averages currently around $3.92–$3.96 in places like Indiana and Texas. Seasonal demand, regional distribution costs, and low distillate stocks continue to support higher levels. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory data, potential geopolitical de-escalation, and upcoming refinery output reports for shifts that could pressure prices toward the $3.75 threshold in any state.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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