Tight domestic beef supply from the smallest U.S. cattle herd in decades—28.5 million beef cows as of July 2026, the lowest since 1971—has driven ground beef retail prices to record levels near $6.90 per pound in April and $6.89 in July, up over 10% year-over-year. Drought, elevated feed and operating costs, and a 4% drop in 2026 production forecasts have constrained output while consumer demand for protein remains resilient. Recent policy actions, including expanded tariff-rate quotas on Argentine lean trimmings effective September 1, aim to increase imports by roughly 10% over 90 days to ease pressure, though herd rebuilding signals remain modest and the 2026 calf crop is projected at a record low. Market-implied probabilities reflect these supply constraints and import timing relative to seasonal cattle marketing.