**Macron’s government is prioritizing parliamentary legislation over a referendum in the final months of his term.** Following the Constitutional Council’s August 14, 2026 ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban, the president directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for passage by spring 2027 rather than invoking Article 11 or another referendum mechanism. The assisted dying law, another late-term priority, advanced through parliament and was promulgated without a popular vote. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and the fragmented National Assembly—lacking a clear majority—complicates the procedural thresholds for convening one. With the 2027 presidential election set for April, Macron’s focus has shifted to completing legislative reforms and managing the transition, leaving little window or political incentive for a binding popular consultation by December 31. Calls for a referendum have come mainly from candidates such as Gabriel Attal, not from the Élysée. Traders therefore assign only an 8% chance to any qualifying presidential decree appearing in the Journal officiel before year-end.