The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign has centered on economic tools since January 2026, including an executive order imposing a fuel blockade through tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, sanctions targeting regime entities and arms networks, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro. Recent August reporting confirms a deliberate shift away from military planning toward these measures and efforts to support negotiated transition scenarios modeled on Venezuela, amid competing demands from the Iran conflict. No large-scale troop movements or invasion staging have occurred, and official statements continue to emphasize diplomatic channels alongside available military options. These patterns sustain trader consensus that full territorial invasion remains improbable through year-end.