Apple's decision to pause major Vision Pro successor development in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the strong 93% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May and June 2026 indicates the next-generation mixed-reality headset remains on hold, with no active work toward a 2026 or early 2027 launch and timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh addressed immediate hardware updates without advancing core architecture or form factor. With roughly five months until the end of 2026 and no scheduled product events or supply chain signals on the horizon, traders see limited catalysts for a surprise acceleration. A sudden strategic reversal or accelerated prototyping could theoretically shift odds, though current verified timelines make that improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause major Vision Pro successor development in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the strong 93% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May and June 2026 indicates the next-generation mixed-reality headset remains on hold, with no active work toward a 2026 or early 2027 launch and timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh addressed immediate hardware updates without advancing core architecture or form factor. With roughly five months until the end of 2026 and no scheduled product events or supply chain signals on the horizon, traders see limited catalysts for a surprise acceleration. A sudden strategic reversal or accelerated prototyping could theoretically shift odds, though current verified timelines make that improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volumen
$5,212Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause major Vision Pro successor development in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the strong 93% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May and June 2026 indicates the next-generation mixed-reality headset remains on hold, with no active work toward a 2026 or early 2027 launch and timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh addressed immediate hardware updates without advancing core architecture or form factor. With roughly five months until the end of 2026 and no scheduled product events or supply chain signals on the horizon, traders see limited catalysts for a surprise acceleration. A sudden strategic reversal or accelerated prototyping could theoretically shift odds, though current verified timelines make that improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,212Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to pause major Vision Pro successor development in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the strong 93% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May and June 2026 indicates the next-generation mixed-reality headset remains on hold, with no active work toward a 2026 or early 2027 launch and timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh addressed immediate hardware updates without advancing core architecture or form factor. With roughly five months until the end of 2026 and no scheduled product events or supply chain signals on the horizon, traders see limited catalysts for a surprise acceleration. A sudden strategic reversal or accelerated prototyping could theoretically shift odds, though current verified timelines make that improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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