Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 93% probability, driven by the original mixed-reality headset's dismal sales trajectory—shipping just 390,000 units in 2024 before plummeting to 45,000 in Q4 2025, prompting Apple to slash production, gut marketing by 95%, and dissolve the dedicated Vision Products Group in early 2026. This strategic pivot toward lighter smart glasses, delayed beyond 2027 per supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, signals deprioritization of high-end spatial computing hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's affordable wearables. Incoming CEO John Ternus views Vision Pro as "early innings" but emphasizes enterprise growth over rushed consumer refreshes; realistic challenges include an unforeseen WWDC acceleration or M5 chip supply chain breakthroughs, though historical delays temper such optimism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 93% probability, driven by the original mixed-reality headset's dismal sales trajectory—shipping just 390,000 units in 2024 before plummeting to 45,000 in Q4 2025, prompting Apple to slash production, gut marketing by 95%, and dissolve the dedicated Vision Products Group in early 2026. This strategic pivot toward lighter smart glasses, delayed beyond 2027 per supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, signals deprioritization of high-end spatial computing hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's affordable wearables. Incoming CEO John Ternus views Vision Pro as "early innings" but emphasizes enterprise growth over rushed consumer refreshes; realistic challenges include an unforeseen WWDC acceleration or M5 chip supply chain breakthroughs, though historical delays temper such optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volumen
$2,508Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 93% probability, driven by the original mixed-reality headset's dismal sales trajectory—shipping just 390,000 units in 2024 before plummeting to 45,000 in Q4 2025, prompting Apple to slash production, gut marketing by 95%, and dissolve the dedicated Vision Products Group in early 2026. This strategic pivot toward lighter smart glasses, delayed beyond 2027 per supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, signals deprioritization of high-end spatial computing hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's affordable wearables. Incoming CEO John Ternus views Vision Pro as "early innings" but emphasizes enterprise growth over rushed consumer refreshes; realistic challenges include an unforeseen WWDC acceleration or M5 chip supply chain breakthroughs, though historical delays temper such optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,508Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 93% probability, driven by the original mixed-reality headset's dismal sales trajectory—shipping just 390,000 units in 2024 before plummeting to 45,000 in Q4 2025, prompting Apple to slash production, gut marketing by 95%, and dissolve the dedicated Vision Products Group in early 2026. This strategic pivot toward lighter smart glasses, delayed beyond 2027 per supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, signals deprioritization of high-end spatial computing hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's affordable wearables. Incoming CEO John Ternus views Vision Pro as "early innings" but emphasizes enterprise growth over rushed consumer refreshes; realistic challenges include an unforeseen WWDC acceleration or M5 chip supply chain breakthroughs, though historical delays temper such optimism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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