Apple’s long-established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches consumers in 2026. Traders point to the company’s predictable product cadence, ongoing supply-chain preparations, and absence of any official signals indicating a skipped cycle or major redesign delay. Historical precedent shows Apple has maintained annual releases through prior disruptions, reinforcing consensus. While near-certain odds reflect this track record, realistic tail risks remain, including severe component shortages, unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, or fundamental shifts in semiconductor roadmaps that could compress or extend development timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$116,457 Vol.
$116,457 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$116,457 Vol.
$116,457 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches consumers in 2026. Traders point to the company’s predictable product cadence, ongoing supply-chain preparations, and absence of any official signals indicating a skipped cycle or major redesign delay. Historical precedent shows Apple has maintained annual releases through prior disruptions, reinforcing consensus. While near-certain odds reflect this track record, realistic tail risks remain, including severe component shortages, unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, or fundamental shifts in semiconductor roadmaps that could compress or extend development timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$116,457Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches consumers in 2026. Traders point to the company’s predictable product cadence, ongoing supply-chain preparations, and absence of any official signals indicating a skipped cycle or major redesign delay. Historical precedent shows Apple has maintained annual releases through prior disruptions, reinforcing consensus. While near-certain odds reflect this track record, realistic tail risks remain, including severe component shortages, unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, or fundamental shifts in semiconductor roadmaps that could compress or extend development timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$116,457Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches consumers in 2026. Traders point to the company’s predictable product cadence, ongoing supply-chain preparations, and absence of any official signals indicating a skipped cycle or major redesign delay. Historical precedent shows Apple has maintained annual releases through prior disruptions, reinforcing consensus. While near-certain odds reflect this track record, realistic tail risks remain, including severe component shortages, unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, or fundamental shifts in semiconductor roadmaps that could compress or extend development timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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