Apple's established annual iPhone cadence, combined with multiple recent supply-chain and analyst reports confirming September 2026 launches for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Traders view the premium models as sufficient to resolve the market in the affirmative, especially with an expected keynote in the second week of September and pre-orders shortly after. While the standard iPhone 18 may slip to early 2027 under Apple's rumored split-launch strategy aimed at maximizing Pro sales, that shift does not alter the high-confidence consensus. Potential remaining risks include last-minute production delays for the new foldable hardware or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the proximity to the event window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$166,273 Vol.
$166,273 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$166,273 Vol.
$166,273 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone cadence, combined with multiple recent supply-chain and analyst reports confirming September 2026 launches for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Traders view the premium models as sufficient to resolve the market in the affirmative, especially with an expected keynote in the second week of September and pre-orders shortly after. While the standard iPhone 18 may slip to early 2027 under Apple's rumored split-launch strategy aimed at maximizing Pro sales, that shift does not alter the high-confidence consensus. Potential remaining risks include last-minute production delays for the new foldable hardware or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the proximity to the event window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$166,273Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone cadence, combined with multiple recent supply-chain and analyst reports confirming September 2026 launches for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Traders view the premium models as sufficient to resolve the market in the affirmative, especially with an expected keynote in the second week of September and pre-orders shortly after. While the standard iPhone 18 may slip to early 2027 under Apple's rumored split-launch strategy aimed at maximizing Pro sales, that shift does not alter the high-confidence consensus. Potential remaining risks include last-minute production delays for the new foldable hardware or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the proximity to the event window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$166,273Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual iPhone cadence, combined with multiple recent supply-chain and analyst reports confirming September 2026 launches for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Traders view the premium models as sufficient to resolve the market in the affirmative, especially with an expected keynote in the second week of September and pre-orders shortly after. While the standard iPhone 18 may slip to early 2027 under Apple's rumored split-launch strategy aimed at maximizing Pro sales, that shift does not alter the high-confidence consensus. Potential remaining risks include last-minute production delays for the new foldable hardware or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the proximity to the event window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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