Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election show the AfD fluctuating between 16% and 19%, with INSA recording 17% in mid-August and earlier Civey and INSA surveys placing the party at 18-19%. The AfD has more than doubled its 9.1% result from 2023 amid national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic stagnation, and security. A July Insa poll briefly put the party first in Berlin, while recent Infratest dimap figures and an August survey both returned 17%. These swings, combined with the party’s consistent positioning near or above the 17% threshold in the final weeks before the vote, underpin traders’ 65.5% implied probability for the Over outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones estatales de Berlín: ¿AfD por encima/por debajo del 17%?
Elecciones estatales de Berlín: ¿AfD por encima/por debajo del 17%?
Más
64% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Más
64% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election show the AfD fluctuating between 16% and 19%, with INSA recording 17% in mid-August and earlier Civey and INSA surveys placing the party at 18-19%. The AfD has more than doubled its 9.1% result from 2023 amid national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic stagnation, and security. A July Insa poll briefly put the party first in Berlin, while recent Infratest dimap figures and an August survey both returned 17%. These swings, combined with the party’s consistent positioning near or above the 17% threshold in the final weeks before the vote, underpin traders’ 65.5% implied probability for the Over outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volumen
$3,281Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election show the AfD fluctuating between 16% and 19%, with INSA recording 17% in mid-August and earlier Civey and INSA surveys placing the party at 18-19%. The AfD has more than doubled its 9.1% result from 2023 amid national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic stagnation, and security. A July Insa poll briefly put the party first in Berlin, while recent Infratest dimap figures and an August survey both returned 17%. These swings, combined with the party’s consistent positioning near or above the 17% threshold in the final weeks before the vote, underpin traders’ 65.5% implied probability for the Over outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$3,281Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election show the AfD fluctuating between 16% and 19%, with INSA recording 17% in mid-August and earlier Civey and INSA surveys placing the party at 18-19%. The AfD has more than doubled its 9.1% result from 2023 amid national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic stagnation, and security. A July Insa poll briefly put the party first in Berlin, while recent Infratest dimap figures and an August survey both returned 17%. These swings, combined with the party’s consistent positioning near or above the 17% threshold in the final weeks before the vote, underpin traders’ 65.5% implied probability for the Over outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes