Trader consensus favors CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by its consistent poll lead in a fragmented field. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, reflecting stable trends over the past month with minor CDU dips from 23% in late March Civey polling. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected majority, amid persistent local challenges like housing shortages and public transport woes eroding support for SPD and Grüne from their 2023 levels. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but coalition negotiations will hinge on final turnout and 5% threshold crossings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
CDU 53%
Verdes 15.8%
Linke 14%
AfD 9.3%
$2,579,952 Vol.
$2,579,952 Vol.
20 sep 2026
CDU
53%
Verdes
16%
Linke
14%
AfD
9%
SPD
8%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
Verdes 15.8%
Linke 14%
AfD 9.3%
$2,579,952 Vol.
$2,579,952 Vol.
20 sep 2026
CDU
$15,965 Vol.
53%
Verdes
$28,653 Vol.
16%
Linke
$12,750 Vol.
14%
AfD
$2,188,814 Vol.
9%
SPD
$288,644 Vol.
8%
BSW
$27,030 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$10,722 Vol.
<1%
FW
$7,374 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by its consistent poll lead in a fragmented field. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, reflecting stable trends over the past month with minor CDU dips from 23% in late March Civey polling. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected majority, amid persistent local challenges like housing shortages and public transport woes eroding support for SPD and Grüne from their 2023 levels. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but coalition negotiations will hinge on final turnout and 5% threshold crossings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$2,579,952Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by its consistent poll lead in a fragmented field. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, reflecting stable trends over the past month with minor CDU dips from 23% in late March Civey polling. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected majority, amid persistent local challenges like housing shortages and public transport woes eroding support for SPD and Grüne from their 2023 levels. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but coalition negotiations will hinge on final turnout and 5% threshold crossings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$2,579,952Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by its consistent poll lead in a fragmented field. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, reflecting stable trends over the past month with minor CDU dips from 23% in late March Civey polling. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected majority, amid persistent local challenges like housing shortages and public transport woes eroding support for SPD and Grüne from their 2023 levels. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but coalition negotiations will hinge on final turnout and 5% threshold crossings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes