Rafael López Aliaga leads trader consensus in the Lima mayoral race at 70.7% implied probability due to consistent polling leads in late-September simulacros, including a Datum survey showing him at 28.4% of valid votes compared to Carlos Bruce at 18.2% and Francis Allison at 11.3%. His Renovación Popular ticket, structured with López Aliaga as first regidor following Luis Rubio’s withdrawal, cleared final eligibility rulings from the JNE. Recent JNE-organized debates on September 22-23 highlighted security proposals across candidates, reinforcing name recognition for the former mayor amid a fragmented field where no other contender exceeds single digits in most surveys. The October 4 election date leaves limited time for major shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRafael López Aliaga 71.8%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 13.8%
Francis James Allison Oyague 6.0%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype 4.9%
$192,274 Vol.
$192,274 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Rafael López Aliaga
72%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
14%
Francis James Allison Oyague
6%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
5%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 71.8%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 13.8%
Francis James Allison Oyague 6.0%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype 4.9%
$192,274 Vol.
$192,274 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Rafael López Aliaga
$31,134 Vol.
72%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
$56,259 Vol.
14%
Francis James Allison Oyague
$22,855 Vol.
6%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
$5,935 Vol.
5%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
$8,622 Vol.
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
$12,447 Vol.
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
$8,391 Vol.
1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
$7,290 Vol.
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
$1,829 Vol.
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
$9,651 Vol.
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
$1,727 Vol.
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
$1,799 Vol.
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
$2,118 Vol.
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
$1,872 Vol.
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
$2,379 Vol.
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
$2,446 Vol.
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
$1,684 Vol.
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
$1,898 Vol.
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
$2,479 Vol.
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
$2,201 Vol.
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
$1,769 Vol.
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
$2,073 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
$3,416 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).Rafael López Aliaga leads trader consensus in the Lima mayoral race at 70.7% implied probability due to consistent polling leads in late-September simulacros, including a Datum survey showing him at 28.4% of valid votes compared to Carlos Bruce at 18.2% and Francis Allison at 11.3%. His Renovación Popular ticket, structured with López Aliaga as first regidor following Luis Rubio’s withdrawal, cleared final eligibility rulings from the JNE. Recent JNE-organized debates on September 22-23 highlighted security proposals across candidates, reinforcing name recognition for the former mayor amid a fragmented field where no other contender exceeds single digits in most surveys. The October 4 election date leaves limited time for major shifts.
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volumen
$192,274Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).Rafael López Aliaga leads trader consensus in the Lima mayoral race at 70.7% implied probability due to consistent polling leads in late-September simulacros, including a Datum survey showing him at 28.4% of valid votes compared to Carlos Bruce at 18.2% and Francis Allison at 11.3%. His Renovación Popular ticket, structured with López Aliaga as first regidor following Luis Rubio’s withdrawal, cleared final eligibility rulings from the JNE. Recent JNE-organized debates on September 22-23 highlighted security proposals across candidates, reinforcing name recognition for the former mayor amid a fragmented field where no other contender exceeds single digits in most surveys. The October 4 election date leaves limited time for major shifts.
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Volumen
$192,274Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Rafael López Aliaga leads trader consensus in the Lima mayoral race at 70.7% implied probability due to consistent polling leads in late-September simulacros, including a Datum survey showing him at 28.4% of valid votes compared to Carlos Bruce at 18.2% and Francis Allison at 11.3%. His Renovación Popular ticket, structured with López Aliaga as first regidor following Luis Rubio’s withdrawal, cleared final eligibility rulings from the JNE. Recent JNE-organized debates on September 22-23 highlighted security proposals across candidates, reinforcing name recognition for the former mayor amid a fragmented field where no other contender exceeds single digits in most surveys. The October 4 election date leaves limited time for major shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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