**Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) polling between 16% and 17%, placing the “Under 17%” outcome at roughly even odds to slightly favored.** Aggregators and the latest surveys (INSA mid-August, Civey, Infratest dimap) put them at approximately 16.6%, below their 18.4% result from 2023 and consistent with a modest long-term decline. Key drivers include persistently low approval for the governing CDU-SPD Senate, limited visibility for Green top candidate Werner Graf, and a crowded four-way race in which the Left (Die Linke) has surged to the lead or near-lead (19–22%), the AfD has gained ground, and the CDU has slipped from its prior dominance. The Greens have recorded only marginal or flat movement in recent months, with some surveys showing small gains offset by others showing stagnation or slight drops. Broader voter dissatisfaction with the current coalition and the absence of a clear Green-specific momentum have kept their support compressed near the 17% threshold. Trader consensus at 60% for “Under” therefore reflects the weight of live polling data indicating the party is more likely to finish at or below 16–17% than comfortably above it, absent a late campaign shift.