Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have reshaped the frontier, with Claude Opus 5 launching July 24 and quickly claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance, while GPT-5.6 variants from early July lead certain coding arenas and remain strong defaults in ChatGPT. These developments, alongside Claude Fable 5 and Mythos-class models, underpin trader consensus that a newer or unlisted system will rank highest by August 10 on major leaderboards. The low odds on the listed Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable variants reflect their position behind these fresher releases in current evaluations. A surprise new model drop or rapid arena shift in the next ten days could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOtro 95.8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 3.9%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$56,381 Vol.
$56,381 Vol.
10 ago 2026
Otro
96%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
4%
claude-fable-5
1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
Otro 95.8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 3.9%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$56,381 Vol.
$56,381 Vol.
10 ago 2026
Otro
$30,371 Vol.
96%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$21,124 Vol.
4%
claude-fable-5
$2,786 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$2,100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have reshaped the frontier, with Claude Opus 5 launching July 24 and quickly claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance, while GPT-5.6 variants from early July lead certain coding arenas and remain strong defaults in ChatGPT. These developments, alongside Claude Fable 5 and Mythos-class models, underpin trader consensus that a newer or unlisted system will rank highest by August 10 on major leaderboards. The low odds on the listed Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable variants reflect their position behind these fresher releases in current evaluations. A surprise new model drop or rapid arena shift in the next ten days could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volumen
$56,381Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have reshaped the frontier, with Claude Opus 5 launching July 24 and quickly claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance, while GPT-5.6 variants from early July lead certain coding arenas and remain strong defaults in ChatGPT. These developments, alongside Claude Fable 5 and Mythos-class models, underpin trader consensus that a newer or unlisted system will rank highest by August 10 on major leaderboards. The low odds on the listed Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable variants reflect their position behind these fresher releases in current evaluations. A surprise new model drop or rapid arena shift in the next ten days could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$56,381Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have reshaped the frontier, with Claude Opus 5 launching July 24 and quickly claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance, while GPT-5.6 variants from early July lead certain coding arenas and remain strong defaults in ChatGPT. These developments, alongside Claude Fable 5 and Mythos-class models, underpin trader consensus that a newer or unlisted system will rank highest by August 10 on major leaderboards. The low odds on the listed Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable variants reflect their position behind these fresher releases in current evaluations. A surprise new model drop or rapid arena shift in the next ten days could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes