Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
Sin cambio 71%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 27%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$1,020,405 Vol.
$1,020,405 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio
71%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
27%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 71%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 27%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$1,020,405 Vol.
$1,020,405 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$174,024 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$361,288 Vol.
3%
Sin cambio
$187,016 Vol.
71%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$178,671 Vol.
27%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$119,406 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,020,405Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$1,020,405Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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