Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 39% implied probability for disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, driven by uncertainty in his ongoing third New York rape retrial—where opening statements concluded last week and key accuser Jessica Mann testified—coupled with active appeals challenging prior convictions. A skeptical Los Angeles appellate panel last week signaled his 2022 16-year California rape sentence may hold, boosting 20-30 years (28%) as a realistic outcome if New York yields a partial or full conviction like the 2025 sexual assault guilty verdict awaiting sentencing. At 74, Weinstein's health issues and planned testimony add volatility, with resolution hinging on jury deliberations and appeals in the coming months amid the #MeToo reckoning's enduring legal fallout.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Tiempo en prisión de Harvey Weinstein?
¿Tiempo en prisión de Harvey Weinstein?
Sin tiempo en prisión 39.0%
20-30 años 28.1%
10-20 años 18.0%
Más de 30 años 6.0%
$885,880 Vol.
$885,880 Vol.
31 dic 2025
Sin tiempo en prisión
39%
<5 años
3%
5-10 años
4%
10-20 años
18%
20-30 años
28%
Más de 30 años
6%
Sin tiempo en prisión 39.0%
20-30 años 28.1%
10-20 años 18.0%
Más de 30 años 6.0%
$885,880 Vol.
$885,880 Vol.
31 dic 2025
Sin tiempo en prisión
$324,055 Vol.
39%
<5 años
$110,512 Vol.
3%
5-10 años
$64,133 Vol.
4%
10-20 años
$143,718 Vol.
18%
20-30 años
$183,024 Vol.
28%
Más de 30 años
$60,438 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 39% implied probability for disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, driven by uncertainty in his ongoing third New York rape retrial—where opening statements concluded last week and key accuser Jessica Mann testified—coupled with active appeals challenging prior convictions. A skeptical Los Angeles appellate panel last week signaled his 2022 16-year California rape sentence may hold, boosting 20-30 years (28%) as a realistic outcome if New York yields a partial or full conviction like the 2025 sexual assault guilty verdict awaiting sentencing. At 74, Weinstein's health issues and planned testimony add volatility, with resolution hinging on jury deliberations and appeals in the coming months amid the #MeToo reckoning's enduring legal fallout.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volumen
$885,880Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2025Mercado abierto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 39% implied probability for disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, driven by uncertainty in his ongoing third New York rape retrial—where opening statements concluded last week and key accuser Jessica Mann testified—coupled with active appeals challenging prior convictions. A skeptical Los Angeles appellate panel last week signaled his 2022 16-year California rape sentence may hold, boosting 20-30 years (28%) as a realistic outcome if New York yields a partial or full conviction like the 2025 sexual assault guilty verdict awaiting sentencing. At 74, Weinstein's health issues and planned testimony add volatility, with resolution hinging on jury deliberations and appeals in the coming months amid the #MeToo reckoning's enduring legal fallout.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$885,880Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2025Mercado abierto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 39% implied probability for disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, driven by uncertainty in his ongoing third New York rape retrial—where opening statements concluded last week and key accuser Jessica Mann testified—coupled with active appeals challenging prior convictions. A skeptical Los Angeles appellate panel last week signaled his 2022 16-year California rape sentence may hold, boosting 20-30 years (28%) as a realistic outcome if New York yields a partial or full conviction like the 2025 sexual assault guilty verdict awaiting sentencing. At 74, Weinstein's health issues and planned testimony add volatility, with resolution hinging on jury deliberations and appeals in the coming months amid the #MeToo reckoning's enduring legal fallout.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes