Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward No Prison Time at 38.2% implied probability, driven by Harvey Weinstein's ongoing New York legal saga—including a split verdict in his June 2025 retrial (guilty on sexual assault, mistrial on rape), January 2026 plea deal discussions to avert a third trial, and his February switch to a new legal team amid appeals. These developments, coupled with his frail health at age 73 (recent prison assault reports and chronic conditions), have fueled bets on time served or concurrent sentencing offsetting his existing 16-year California term. The 28.2% odds for 20-30 years reflect potential combined exposure if appeals fail, though upcoming Manhattan hearings could shift momentum rapidly in this high-uncertainty #MeToo landmark case.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Tiempo en prisión de Harvey Weinstein?
¿Tiempo en prisión de Harvey Weinstein?
Sin tiempo en prisión 38.2%
20-30 años 21.8%
10-20 años 13.7%
Más de 30 años 9.6%
$878,477 Vol.
$878,477 Vol.
Sin tiempo en prisión
38%
<5 años
5%
5-10 años
5%
10-20 años
14%
20-30 años
22%
Más de 30 años
10%
Sin tiempo en prisión 38.2%
20-30 años 21.8%
10-20 años 13.7%
Más de 30 años 9.6%
$878,477 Vol.
$878,477 Vol.
Sin tiempo en prisión
38%
<5 años
5%
5-10 años
5%
10-20 años
14%
20-30 años
22%
Más de 30 años
10%
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward No Prison Time at 38.2% implied probability, driven by Harvey Weinstein's ongoing New York legal saga—including a split verdict in his June 2025 retrial (guilty on sexual assault, mistrial on rape), January 2026 plea deal discussions to avert a third trial, and his February switch to a new legal team amid appeals. These developments, coupled with his frail health at age 73 (recent prison assault reports and chronic conditions), have fueled bets on time served or concurrent sentencing offsetting his existing 16-year California term. The 28.2% odds for 20-30 years reflect potential combined exposure if appeals fail, though upcoming Manhattan hearings could shift momentum rapidly in this high-uncertainty #MeToo landmark case.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes