Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Pekín el 16 de abril?
¿La temperatura más alta en Pekín el 16 de abril?
21°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$131,519 Vol.
$131,519 Vol.
16 abr 2026
18°C o menos
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Sí
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C o más
No
21°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$131,519 Vol.
$131,519 Vol.
16 abr 2026
18°C o menos
$20,031 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,139 Vol.
No
20°C
$10,229 Vol.
No
21°C
$23,751 Vol.
Sí
22°C
$15,556 Vol.
No
23°C
$12,331 Vol.
No
24°C
$18,952 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,513 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,635 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,266 Vol.
No
28°C o más
$5,116 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volumen
$131,519Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$131,519Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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