Strong scientific consensus on hantavirus biology underpins the 96.9% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. The virus spreads primarily through rodent excreta or saliva, with only the Andes strain showing limited human-to-human transmission via close, prolonged contact, according to CDC and WHO data. The 2026 MV Hondius outbreak produced roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths before containment through contact tracing and 42-day quarantines ended U.S. monitoring in June with no sustained spread. Argentina reported 102 seasonal cases through early September, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, geographically limited clusters rather than exponential growth. Trader consensus reflects these transmission barriers, high case-fatality rates that limit silent spread, and rapid official responses. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented evolutionary increase in respiratory transmissibility, which experts view as biologically implausible in the near term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Pandemia de hantavirus en 2026?
¿Pandemia de hantavirus en 2026?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,029,499 Vol.
$18,029,499 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,029,499 Vol.
$18,029,499 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong scientific consensus on hantavirus biology underpins the 96.9% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. The virus spreads primarily through rodent excreta or saliva, with only the Andes strain showing limited human-to-human transmission via close, prolonged contact, according to CDC and WHO data. The 2026 MV Hondius outbreak produced roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths before containment through contact tracing and 42-day quarantines ended U.S. monitoring in June with no sustained spread. Argentina reported 102 seasonal cases through early September, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, geographically limited clusters rather than exponential growth. Trader consensus reflects these transmission barriers, high case-fatality rates that limit silent spread, and rapid official responses. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented evolutionary increase in respiratory transmissibility, which experts view as biologically implausible in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volumen
$18,029,499Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong scientific consensus on hantavirus biology underpins the 96.9% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. The virus spreads primarily through rodent excreta or saliva, with only the Andes strain showing limited human-to-human transmission via close, prolonged contact, according to CDC and WHO data. The 2026 MV Hondius outbreak produced roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths before containment through contact tracing and 42-day quarantines ended U.S. monitoring in June with no sustained spread. Argentina reported 102 seasonal cases through early September, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, geographically limited clusters rather than exponential growth. Trader consensus reflects these transmission barriers, high case-fatality rates that limit silent spread, and rapid official responses. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented evolutionary increase in respiratory transmissibility, which experts view as biologically implausible in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$18,029,499Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong scientific consensus on hantavirus biology underpins the 96.9% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. The virus spreads primarily through rodent excreta or saliva, with only the Andes strain showing limited human-to-human transmission via close, prolonged contact, according to CDC and WHO data. The 2026 MV Hondius outbreak produced roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths before containment through contact tracing and 42-day quarantines ended U.S. monitoring in June with no sustained spread. Argentina reported 102 seasonal cases through early September, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, geographically limited clusters rather than exponential growth. Trader consensus reflects these transmission barriers, high case-fatality rates that limit silent spread, and rapid official responses. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented evolutionary increase in respiratory transmissibility, which experts view as biologically implausible in the near term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes