Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects nearly 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C in Beijing on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirming a midday peak of 26°C around 14:00 local time under cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge suppressing stronger warming. This aligns precisely with CMA and World Meteorological Centre Beijing pre-day forecasts capping highs at 26°C amid reduced solar insolation, matching early May climatological norms of 25-26°C daytime maxima. While inherent measurement uncertainties exist—such as peripheral station data revisions or microscale heat pockets—diurnal cooling to 18°C by evening and model consensus render higher outcomes highly improbable, with final CMA daily summary expected to affirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 1?
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$84,057 Vol.
$84,057 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$84,057 Vol.
$84,057 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
$5,311 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,912 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,909 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,840 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$12,502 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,395 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,677 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,079 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,346 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,833 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$4,252 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects nearly 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C in Beijing on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirming a midday peak of 26°C around 14:00 local time under cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge suppressing stronger warming. This aligns precisely with CMA and World Meteorological Centre Beijing pre-day forecasts capping highs at 26°C amid reduced solar insolation, matching early May climatological norms of 25-26°C daytime maxima. While inherent measurement uncertainties exist—such as peripheral station data revisions or microscale heat pockets—diurnal cooling to 18°C by evening and model consensus render higher outcomes highly improbable, with final CMA daily summary expected to affirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volumen
$84,057Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects nearly 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C in Beijing on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirming a midday peak of 26°C around 14:00 local time under cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge suppressing stronger warming. This aligns precisely with CMA and World Meteorological Centre Beijing pre-day forecasts capping highs at 26°C amid reduced solar insolation, matching early May climatological norms of 25-26°C daytime maxima. While inherent measurement uncertainties exist—such as peripheral station data revisions or microscale heat pockets—diurnal cooling to 18°C by evening and model consensus render higher outcomes highly improbable, with final CMA daily summary expected to affirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$84,057Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects nearly 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C in Beijing on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirming a midday peak of 26°C around 14:00 local time under cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge suppressing stronger warming. This aligns precisely with CMA and World Meteorological Centre Beijing pre-day forecasts capping highs at 26°C amid reduced solar insolation, matching early May climatological norms of 25-26°C daytime maxima. While inherent measurement uncertainties exist—such as peripheral station data revisions or microscale heat pockets—diurnal cooling to 18°C by evening and model consensus render higher outcomes highly improbable, with final CMA daily summary expected to affirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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