**Official observational data from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport (Ezeiza)—the standard reference for Buenos Aires temperature markets—confirm a high of 22°C on May 4, 2026, driving the market's unanimous 100% implied probability on this outcome.** This precise match with SMN's pre-event forecast and consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS reflects stable atmospheric conditions: a lingering cool air mass over central Argentina suppressed daytime heating amid light winds and partial cloud cover, consistent with autumnal norms where May highs typically average 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as a post hoc data revision from preliminary to final records, are highly improbable given the low forecast uncertainty and rapid alignment of trader sentiment with verified measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 4?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 4?
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$66,854 Vol.
$66,854 Vol.
4 may 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$66,854 Vol.
$66,854 Vol.
4 may 2026
15°C or below
$3,305 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,347 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,065 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,875 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,193 Vol.
No
20°C
$12,089 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,684 Vol.
No
22°C
$9,605 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$11,657 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,997 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$3,037 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official observational data from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport (Ezeiza)—the standard reference for Buenos Aires temperature markets—confirm a high of 22°C on May 4, 2026, driving the market's unanimous 100% implied probability on this outcome.** This precise match with SMN's pre-event forecast and consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS reflects stable atmospheric conditions: a lingering cool air mass over central Argentina suppressed daytime heating amid light winds and partial cloud cover, consistent with autumnal norms where May highs typically average 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as a post hoc data revision from preliminary to final records, are highly improbable given the low forecast uncertainty and rapid alignment of trader sentiment with verified measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$66,854Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official observational data from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport (Ezeiza)—the standard reference for Buenos Aires temperature markets—confirm a high of 22°C on May 4, 2026, driving the market's unanimous 100% implied probability on this outcome.** This precise match with SMN's pre-event forecast and consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS reflects stable atmospheric conditions: a lingering cool air mass over central Argentina suppressed daytime heating amid light winds and partial cloud cover, consistent with autumnal norms where May highs typically average 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as a post hoc data revision from preliminary to final records, are highly improbable given the low forecast uncertainty and rapid alignment of trader sentiment with verified measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$66,854Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**Official observational data from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport (Ezeiza)—the standard reference for Buenos Aires temperature markets—confirm a high of 22°C on May 4, 2026, driving the market's unanimous 100% implied probability on this outcome.** This precise match with SMN's pre-event forecast and consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS reflects stable atmospheric conditions: a lingering cool air mass over central Argentina suppressed daytime heating amid light winds and partial cloud cover, consistent with autumnal norms where May highs typically average 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as a post hoc data revision from preliminary to final records, are highly improbable given the low forecast uncertainty and rapid alignment of trader sentiment with verified measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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