Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on highs near 28°C for Madrid on April 18, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing a strong upper-level ridge over Iberia fostering subsident warming and mostly clear skies for peak afternoon heating. This setup advects warm air from southern latitudes, pushing forecasts well above the historical April average of 18–19°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, the likely resolution site per AEMET observations. Tight clustering reflects model spread in maximum temperature timing—earlier peaks favor 29°C, while minor high-cloud intrusion could cap at 27°C—amid inherent short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing. Key upcoming updates include AEMET's evening bulletin and 12Z model ensembles tomorrow, which could refine diurnal cycle details.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
28°C 35%
29°C 26%
27°C 26%
30°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 abr 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
9%
27°C
26%
28°C
35%
29°C
26%
30°C
11%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 35%
29°C 26%
27°C 26%
30°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 abr 2026
22°C or below
$241 Vol.
1%
23°C
$226 Vol.
1%
24°C
$469 Vol.
1%
25°C
$242 Vol.
3%
26°C
$120 Vol.
9%
27°C
$139 Vol.
26%
28°C
$138 Vol.
35%
29°C
$130 Vol.
26%
30°C
$296 Vol.
11%
31°C
$144 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$519 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on highs near 28°C for Madrid on April 18, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing a strong upper-level ridge over Iberia fostering subsident warming and mostly clear skies for peak afternoon heating. This setup advects warm air from southern latitudes, pushing forecasts well above the historical April average of 18–19°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, the likely resolution site per AEMET observations. Tight clustering reflects model spread in maximum temperature timing—earlier peaks favor 29°C, while minor high-cloud intrusion could cap at 27°C—amid inherent short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing. Key upcoming updates include AEMET's evening bulletin and 12Z model ensembles tomorrow, which could refine diurnal cycle details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Volumen
$2,653Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on highs near 28°C for Madrid on April 18, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing a strong upper-level ridge over Iberia fostering subsident warming and mostly clear skies for peak afternoon heating. This setup advects warm air from southern latitudes, pushing forecasts well above the historical April average of 18–19°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, the likely resolution site per AEMET observations. Tight clustering reflects model spread in maximum temperature timing—earlier peaks favor 29°C, while minor high-cloud intrusion could cap at 27°C—amid inherent short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing. Key upcoming updates include AEMET's evening bulletin and 12Z model ensembles tomorrow, which could refine diurnal cycle details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,653Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on highs near 28°C for Madrid on April 18, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing a strong upper-level ridge over Iberia fostering subsident warming and mostly clear skies for peak afternoon heating. This setup advects warm air from southern latitudes, pushing forecasts well above the historical April average of 18–19°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, the likely resolution site per AEMET observations. Tight clustering reflects model spread in maximum temperature timing—earlier peaks favor 29°C, while minor high-cloud intrusion could cap at 27°C—amid inherent short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing. Key upcoming updates include AEMET's evening bulletin and 12Z model ensembles tomorrow, which could refine diurnal cycle details.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes