**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 26 de julio?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 26 de julio?
32°C 50%
31°C 35%
33°C 11%
30°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
26 jul 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
35%
32°C
50%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 50%
31°C 35%
33°C 11%
30°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
26 jul 2026
27°C or below
$175 Vol.
1%
28°C
$225 Vol.
1%
29°C
$280 Vol.
2%
30°C
$209 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,819 Vol.
35%
32°C
$864 Vol.
50%
33°C
$219 Vol.
11%
34°C
$125 Vol.
2%
35°C
$172 Vol.
1%
36°C
$177 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$5,027Fecha de finalización
26 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,027Fecha de finalización
26 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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