**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on July 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?
102-103°F 100.0%
97°F or below <1%
98-99°F <1%
100-101°F <1%
$176,701 Vol.
$176,701 Vol.
2 jul 2026
97°F or below
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
Yes
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
No
108-109°F
No
110-111°F
No
112-113°F
No
114-115°F
No
116°F or higher
No
102-103°F 100.0%
97°F or below <1%
98-99°F <1%
100-101°F <1%
$176,701 Vol.
$176,701 Vol.
2 jul 2026
97°F or below
$26,233 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$30,106 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$21,301 Vol.
No
102-103°F
$29,274 Vol.
Yes
104-105°F
$23,545 Vol.
No
106-107°F
$17,493 Vol.
No
108-109°F
$6,209 Vol.
No
110-111°F
$12,110 Vol.
No
112-113°F
$4,297 Vol.
No
114-115°F
$2,287 Vol.
No
116°F or higher
$3,847 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$176,701Fecha de finalización
2 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$176,701Fecha de finalización
2 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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