Latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-term forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Seoul's April 16 high temperature clustering tightly around 22–24°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing mild continental air and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, explaining the near-even split in trader sentiment between 23°C (24.5% implied probability) and 24°C or higher (23.4%). Differentiating factors include model divergences on afternoon cloud cover—ECMWF ensembles favor fuller insolation and boundary-layer mixing for potential 24°C+ peaks, while GFS projects slightly more haze capping heating at 23°C—amid springtime variability boosted by Seoul's urban heat island effect. Historical mid-April highs average 18°C, but recent warming trends have narrowed uncertainty. Watch KMA's next 12z update and early morning observations for resolution shifts.