Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 1 de julio?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 1 de julio?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$149,583 Vol.
$149,583 Vol.
1 jul 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$149,583 Vol.
$149,583 Vol.
1 jul 2026
22°C or below
$10,451 Vol.
No
23°C
$15,338 Vol.
No
24°C
$18,285 Vol.
No
25°C
$19,892 Vol.
No
26°C
$15,480 Vol.
No
27°C
$18,411 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$16,113 Vol.
No
29°C
$11,511 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,734 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,480 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$6,888 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$149,583Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$149,583Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes