Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted repeated strikes and seizures against commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that began in early 2026, with over 70 documented maritime incidents reported through mid-August. Recent actions include projectile attacks on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY in mid-August that resulted in a seafarer fatality, the boarding and seizure of the tanker AMARA, and warnings issued August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers for alleged violations of Iranian transit rules with threats of fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. These moves follow the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding and U.S. reimposition of naval restrictions, forcing most traffic onto higher-risk northern corridors or "dark" routes while sharply reducing overall transits from pre-conflict levels. Ongoing enforcement, combined with Houthi threats in adjacent waters, sustains elevated disruption risks through late 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío antes del...?
¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío antes del...?
NUEVO
26 ago 2026
26 de agosto
28%
31 de agosto
60%
$5,800 Vol.
26 de agosto
$5,798 Vol.
28%
31 de agosto
$2 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted repeated strikes and seizures against commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that began in early 2026, with over 70 documented maritime incidents reported through mid-August. Recent actions include projectile attacks on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY in mid-August that resulted in a seafarer fatality, the boarding and seizure of the tanker AMARA, and warnings issued August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers for alleged violations of Iranian transit rules with threats of fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. These moves follow the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding and U.S. reimposition of naval restrictions, forcing most traffic onto higher-risk northern corridors or "dark" routes while sharply reducing overall transits from pre-conflict levels. Ongoing enforcement, combined with Houthi threats in adjacent waters, sustains elevated disruption risks through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercado abierto: Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volumen
$5,800Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted repeated strikes and seizures against commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that began in early 2026, with over 70 documented maritime incidents reported through mid-August. Recent actions include projectile attacks on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY in mid-August that resulted in a seafarer fatality, the boarding and seizure of the tanker AMARA, and warnings issued August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers for alleged violations of Iranian transit rules with threats of fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. These moves follow the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding and U.S. reimposition of naval restrictions, forcing most traffic onto higher-risk northern corridors or "dark" routes while sharply reducing overall transits from pre-conflict levels. Ongoing enforcement, combined with Houthi threats in adjacent waters, sustains elevated disruption risks through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$5,800Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted repeated strikes and seizures against commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that began in early 2026, with over 70 documented maritime incidents reported through mid-August. Recent actions include projectile attacks on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY in mid-August that resulted in a seafarer fatality, the boarding and seizure of the tanker AMARA, and warnings issued August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers for alleged violations of Iranian transit rules with threats of fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. These moves follow the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding and U.S. reimposition of naval restrictions, forcing most traffic onto higher-risk northern corridors or "dark" routes while sharply reducing overall transits from pre-conflict levels. Ongoing enforcement, combined with Houthi threats in adjacent waters, sustains elevated disruption risks through late 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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