Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France indicate Paris remains under a heatwave pattern through July 9, with daytime highs near 35°C and overnight lows likely holding around 20°C amid persistent warm advection and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range over typical early-July climatological values of 14–17°C, explaining elevated market-implied probabilities clustered between 18°C and 25°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from potential northwest flow shifts or clearer nights that could allow brief dips toward 18°C, while stronger high-pressure persistence would keep readings above 20°C. Traders are weighting these variables against historical analogs of heatwave minima, with fresh ensemble updates from European and global models expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en París el 9 de julio?
¿Temperatura más baja en París el 9 de julio?
21°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$25,370 Vol.
$25,370 Vol.
9 jul 2026
18°C o menos
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Sí
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C o más
No
21°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$25,370 Vol.
$25,370 Vol.
9 jul 2026
18°C o menos
$1,223 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,144 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,656 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,498 Vol.
Sí
22°C
$2,950 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,180 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,999 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,339 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,427 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,117 Vol.
No
28°C o más
$1,837 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France indicate Paris remains under a heatwave pattern through July 9, with daytime highs near 35°C and overnight lows likely holding around 20°C amid persistent warm advection and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range over typical early-July climatological values of 14–17°C, explaining elevated market-implied probabilities clustered between 18°C and 25°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from potential northwest flow shifts or clearer nights that could allow brief dips toward 18°C, while stronger high-pressure persistence would keep readings above 20°C. Traders are weighting these variables against historical analogs of heatwave minima, with fresh ensemble updates from European and global models expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$25,370Fecha de finalización
9 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France indicate Paris remains under a heatwave pattern through July 9, with daytime highs near 35°C and overnight lows likely holding around 20°C amid persistent warm advection and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range over typical early-July climatological values of 14–17°C, explaining elevated market-implied probabilities clustered between 18°C and 25°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from potential northwest flow shifts or clearer nights that could allow brief dips toward 18°C, while stronger high-pressure persistence would keep readings above 20°C. Traders are weighting these variables against historical analogs of heatwave minima, with fresh ensemble updates from European and global models expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$25,370Fecha de finalización
9 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France indicate Paris remains under a heatwave pattern through July 9, with daytime highs near 35°C and overnight lows likely holding around 20°C amid persistent warm advection and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range over typical early-July climatological values of 14–17°C, explaining elevated market-implied probabilities clustered between 18°C and 25°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from potential northwest flow shifts or clearer nights that could allow brief dips toward 18°C, while stronger high-pressure persistence would keep readings above 20°C. Traders are weighting these variables against historical analogs of heatwave minima, with fresh ensemble updates from European and global models expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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