Korea Meteorological Administration observations recorded Seoul's morning low at exactly 10°C on May 4, 2026, under clear skies and light westerly winds, anchoring trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. Updated hourly guidance shows temperatures stabilizing around 11°C near midnight, with minimal radiative cooling potential due to urban heat island effects and persistent high pressure. This aligns with short-range model ensembles from KMA, reflecting typical early-May diurnal patterns where lows occur pre-dawn. Realistic challenges include unexpected wind calm allowing sharper nocturnal cooling to 9°C or below, though low-probability given current trajectories; final daily minimum will resolve via official Seoul station data post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$18,431 Vol.
$18,431 Vol.
4 may 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$18,431 Vol.
$18,431 Vol.
4 may 2026
5°C or below
$652 Vol.
No
6°C
$2,238 Vol.
No
7°C
$4,779 Vol.
No
8°C
$4,668 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,356 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,774 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$407 Vol.
No
12°C
$347 Vol.
No
13°C
$453 Vol.
No
14°C
$406 Vol.
No
15°C or higher
$351 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration observations recorded Seoul's morning low at exactly 10°C on May 4, 2026, under clear skies and light westerly winds, anchoring trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. Updated hourly guidance shows temperatures stabilizing around 11°C near midnight, with minimal radiative cooling potential due to urban heat island effects and persistent high pressure. This aligns with short-range model ensembles from KMA, reflecting typical early-May diurnal patterns where lows occur pre-dawn. Realistic challenges include unexpected wind calm allowing sharper nocturnal cooling to 9°C or below, though low-probability given current trajectories; final daily minimum will resolve via official Seoul station data post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$18,431Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration observations recorded Seoul's morning low at exactly 10°C on May 4, 2026, under clear skies and light westerly winds, anchoring trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. Updated hourly guidance shows temperatures stabilizing around 11°C near midnight, with minimal radiative cooling potential due to urban heat island effects and persistent high pressure. This aligns with short-range model ensembles from KMA, reflecting typical early-May diurnal patterns where lows occur pre-dawn. Realistic challenges include unexpected wind calm allowing sharper nocturnal cooling to 9°C or below, though low-probability given current trajectories; final daily minimum will resolve via official Seoul station data post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$18,431Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Korea Meteorological Administration observations recorded Seoul's morning low at exactly 10°C on May 4, 2026, under clear skies and light westerly winds, anchoring trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. Updated hourly guidance shows temperatures stabilizing around 11°C near midnight, with minimal radiative cooling potential due to urban heat island effects and persistent high pressure. This aligns with short-range model ensembles from KMA, reflecting typical early-May diurnal patterns where lows occur pre-dawn. Realistic challenges include unexpected wind calm allowing sharper nocturnal cooling to 9°C or below, though low-probability given current trajectories; final daily minimum will resolve via official Seoul station data post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes