Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,930 Vol.
$26,930 Vol.
25 abr 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,930 Vol.
$26,930 Vol.
25 abr 2026
8°C or below
$4,304 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,124 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,345 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,050 Vol.
No
12°C
$5,073 Vol.
No
13°C
$4,065 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$279 Vol.
No
15°C
$835 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,249 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,045 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$4,562 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$26,930Fecha de finalización
25 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$26,930Fecha de finalización
25 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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