Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 1 de julio?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 1 de julio?
23°C 100.0%
17°C o menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$15,067 Vol.
$15,067 Vol.
1 jul 2026
17°C o menos
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Sí
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C o más
No
23°C 100.0%
17°C o menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$15,067 Vol.
$15,067 Vol.
1 jul 2026
17°C o menos
$604 Vol.
No
18°C
$540 Vol.
No
19°C
$755 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,580 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,182 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,008 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,519 Vol.
Sí
24°C
$1,996 Vol.
No
25°C
$603 Vol.
No
26°C
$435 Vol.
No
27°C o más
$843 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$15,067Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$15,067Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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