Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a North Korean missile test or launch by April 15 at 56% for Yes, reflecting Pyongyang's pattern of provocations around the April 15 Day of the Sun holiday marking Kim Il-sung's birthday—a date historically tied to missile displays or firings, such as the 2022 ICBM parade. Recent drivers include North Korea's April 2 launch of multiple short-range ballistic missiles detected by South Korea, amid heightened tensions from ongoing US-South Korea Freedom Shield military drills. Kim Jong Un's directives for accelerated missile and artillery production underscore readiness, though a week's pause since the last test leaves room for de-escalation or delay before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNorth Korea missile test/launch by April 15?
North Korea missile test/launch by April 15?
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:51 PM ET
Volumen
$424Fecha de finalización
Apr 15, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$424Fecha de finalización
Apr 15, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a North Korean missile test or launch by April 15 at 56% for Yes, reflecting Pyongyang's pattern of provocations around the April 15 Day of the Sun holiday marking Kim Il-sung's birthday—a date historically tied to missile displays or firings, such as the 2022 ICBM parade. Recent drivers include North Korea's April 2 launch of multiple short-range ballistic missiles detected by South Korea, amid heightened tensions from ongoing US-South Korea Freedom Shield military drills. Kim Jong Un's directives for accelerated missile and artillery production underscore readiness, though a week's pause since the last test leaves room for de-escalation or delay before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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