North Korea’s sustained focus on nuclear and missile development, naval expansion, and troop commitments to Russia has kept large-scale conventional invasion preparations off its immediate agenda, reinforcing trader consensus around a 97.2% probability against any offensive before 2027. Under President Lee Jae-myung, South Korea has pursued reduced joint drills, peace overtures, and coordination with U.S. efforts to revive dialogue with Kim Jong Un, while maintaining robust deterrence alongside Washington and Tokyo. Recent August 2026 missile tests and arms-sale condemnations stayed within established provocation patterns rather than crossing into broader conflict triggers. Remaining scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from border incidents, miscalculation during drills, or abrupt changes in Pyongyang’s strategic priorities.