Reza Pahlavi has remained outside Iran for 48 years and has repeatedly signaled readiness to return to any liberated area as soon as conditions permit, even prior to full regime change, to encourage defections and coordinate with domestic opposition. The February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei created a window of instability, yet the Islamic Republic has shown institutional continuity, with security forces maintaining control and no territory under sustained opposition governance. Recent reporting highlights Pahlavi’s transition plans, including the Iran Prosperity Project and appointments for transitional justice bodies, but also notes persistent fragmentation among exile and domestic groups alongside limited international backing for his leadership role. Traders therefore assign low probability to entry by the end of 2026, reflecting these structural barriers and the absence of verifiable movement toward a safe or feasible return.