Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential addition to the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood, a stance unchanged amid U.S. efforts to link a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement to accession. President Trump’s May and July 2026 statements tying such a deal—and elements of an Iran settlement—to immediate Saudi, Qatari, and other signings produced limited follow-through, with several named states offering no commitment or explicit rejection. Syria has ruled out joining, while Kazakhstan’s 2025–2026 entry marked the most recent expansion. With roughly five months remaining before 2027 and no verified breakthrough in bilateral or multilateral talks, traders assign the “No” outcome a 68.2% implied probability, reflecting persistent linkage to unresolved regional disputes and the compressed timeline for new diplomatic agreements.