OpenAI’s cautious approach to formally declaring AGI achievement underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. The September 3 release of GPT-6 Astra prompted president Greg Brockman to describe entering the “AGI era” and suggest future observers might view the model as a milestone, yet the company stopped short of an official announcement that it meets its charter definition of autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly characterized AGI as a poorly defined or marketing term, while recent safety reviews and discussions of potential development slowdowns reflect internal caution amid strong benchmark gains in areas like agentic workflows and cybersecurity. Traders appear to weigh these factors more heavily than external hype, such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang declaring AGI arrived, given the emphasis on verifiable OpenAI statements and unresolved definitional debates.