Polymarket traders price a modest bearish tilt for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with sub-$6,000 holding a 25.5% implied probability amid elevated geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict inflating energy prices and delaying Fed rate cuts beyond mid-year, despite the index's recent surge to 7,165 on April 24. Strong Q1 earnings growth exceeding 13% year-over-year—fueled by AI-driven tech margins and resilient consumer spending—supports competing $6,500–$7,500 bins at 20–21.5%, aligning with JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target and consensus 17% full-year EPS expansion. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC signals on the 3.5%–3.75% fed funds rate, inflation trajectories, and conflict resolution, with high valuations capping upside conviction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
<$6,000 26%
$7,000-$7,500 20%
>$8,000 16%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
$20,897 Vol.
$20,897 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
26%
$6,000-$6,500
18%
$6,500-$7,000
20%
$7,000-$7,500
20%
$7,500-$8,000
13%
>$8,000
16%
<$6,000 26%
$7,000-$7,500 20%
>$8,000 16%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
$20,897 Vol.
$20,897 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$12,457 Vol.
26%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,354 Vol.
18%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,275 Vol.
20%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,060 Vol.
20%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,723 Vol.
13%
>$8,000
$2,028 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest bearish tilt for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with sub-$6,000 holding a 25.5% implied probability amid elevated geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict inflating energy prices and delaying Fed rate cuts beyond mid-year, despite the index's recent surge to 7,165 on April 24. Strong Q1 earnings growth exceeding 13% year-over-year—fueled by AI-driven tech margins and resilient consumer spending—supports competing $6,500–$7,500 bins at 20–21.5%, aligning with JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target and consensus 17% full-year EPS expansion. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC signals on the 3.5%–3.75% fed funds rate, inflation trajectories, and conflict resolution, with high valuations capping upside conviction.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$20,897Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest bearish tilt for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with sub-$6,000 holding a 25.5% implied probability amid elevated geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict inflating energy prices and delaying Fed rate cuts beyond mid-year, despite the index's recent surge to 7,165 on April 24. Strong Q1 earnings growth exceeding 13% year-over-year—fueled by AI-driven tech margins and resilient consumer spending—supports competing $6,500–$7,500 bins at 20–21.5%, aligning with JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target and consensus 17% full-year EPS expansion. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC signals on the 3.5%–3.75% fed funds rate, inflation trajectories, and conflict resolution, with high valuations capping upside conviction.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$20,897Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a modest bearish tilt for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with sub-$6,000 holding a 25.5% implied probability amid elevated geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict inflating energy prices and delaying Fed rate cuts beyond mid-year, despite the index's recent surge to 7,165 on April 24. Strong Q1 earnings growth exceeding 13% year-over-year—fueled by AI-driven tech margins and resilient consumer spending—supports competing $6,500–$7,500 bins at 20–21.5%, aligning with JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target and consensus 17% full-year EPS expansion. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC signals on the 3.5%–3.75% fed funds rate, inflation trajectories, and conflict resolution, with high valuations capping upside conviction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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