Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with <$6,000 leading at 26.5% implied probability amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions offsetting robust Q1 earnings beats reported through April 24. The index recently notched all-time highs near 7,177 before settling at 7,165 on April 24, up over 5% year-to-date, yet the Federal Reserve's March FOMC statement holding rates steady while projecting just one cut tempers upside bets into $7,000-$7,500 (20.5%). Wall Street consensus targets cluster around 7,300-$7,600, implying 3-6% gains, but heightened VIX readings and four-week win streak exhaustion fuel competitive pricing across bins. Key swing factors include upcoming April employment data, May CPI release, and June FOMC, where labor softness or inflation reacceleration could decisively shift consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
<$6,000 27%
$7,000-$7,500 26%
$6,500-$7,000 20%
$6,000-$6,500 17%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
27%
$6,000-$6,500
17%
$6,500-$7,000
20%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500-$8,000
13%
>$8,000
15%
<$6,000 27%
$7,000-$7,500 26%
$6,500-$7,000 20%
$6,000-$6,500 17%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$12,479 Vol.
27%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,404 Vol.
17%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,279 Vol.
20%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,064 Vol.
19%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,727 Vol.
13%
>$8,000
$2,032 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with <$6,000 leading at 26.5% implied probability amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions offsetting robust Q1 earnings beats reported through April 24. The index recently notched all-time highs near 7,177 before settling at 7,165 on April 24, up over 5% year-to-date, yet the Federal Reserve's March FOMC statement holding rates steady while projecting just one cut tempers upside bets into $7,000-$7,500 (20.5%). Wall Street consensus targets cluster around 7,300-$7,600, implying 3-6% gains, but heightened VIX readings and four-week win streak exhaustion fuel competitive pricing across bins. Key swing factors include upcoming April employment data, May CPI release, and June FOMC, where labor softness or inflation reacceleration could decisively shift consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$20,985Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with <$6,000 leading at 26.5% implied probability amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions offsetting robust Q1 earnings beats reported through April 24. The index recently notched all-time highs near 7,177 before settling at 7,165 on April 24, up over 5% year-to-date, yet the Federal Reserve's March FOMC statement holding rates steady while projecting just one cut tempers upside bets into $7,000-$7,500 (20.5%). Wall Street consensus targets cluster around 7,300-$7,600, implying 3-6% gains, but heightened VIX readings and four-week win streak exhaustion fuel competitive pricing across bins. Key swing factors include upcoming April employment data, May CPI release, and June FOMC, where labor softness or inflation reacceleration could decisively shift consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$20,985Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with <$6,000 leading at 26.5% implied probability amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions offsetting robust Q1 earnings beats reported through April 24. The index recently notched all-time highs near 7,177 before settling at 7,165 on April 24, up over 5% year-to-date, yet the Federal Reserve's March FOMC statement holding rates steady while projecting just one cut tempers upside bets into $7,000-$7,500 (20.5%). Wall Street consensus targets cluster around 7,300-$7,600, implying 3-6% gains, but heightened VIX readings and four-week win streak exhaustion fuel competitive pricing across bins. Key swing factors include upcoming April employment data, May CPI release, and June FOMC, where labor softness or inflation reacceleration could decisively shift consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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