Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with <$6,000 implied probability at 26.5% narrowly leading amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—and Fed dot plot signaling just one rate cut from current 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range due to war-related inflation risks in the Middle East. Strong Q1 earnings beats propelled recent record highs near 7,165, bolstering 18-20% odds for $6,500-$7,500 bands on 17% full-year 2026 EPS growth consensus, yet elevated forward P/E of 19.8 tempers enthusiasm. Key differentiators include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC, and geopolitical de-escalation, with closely contested odds hinging on soft-landing execution versus recession signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
<$6,000 27%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,000-$6,500 18%
>$8,000 16%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
27%
$6,000-$6,500
18%
$6,500-$7,000
20%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500-$8,000
13%
>$8,000
16%
<$6,000 27%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,000-$6,500 18%
>$8,000 16%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$12,476 Vol.
27%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,400 Vol.
18%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,275 Vol.
20%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,060 Vol.
19%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,723 Vol.
13%
>$8,000
$2,028 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with <$6,000 implied probability at 26.5% narrowly leading amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—and Fed dot plot signaling just one rate cut from current 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range due to war-related inflation risks in the Middle East. Strong Q1 earnings beats propelled recent record highs near 7,165, bolstering 18-20% odds for $6,500-$7,500 bands on 17% full-year 2026 EPS growth consensus, yet elevated forward P/E of 19.8 tempers enthusiasm. Key differentiators include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC, and geopolitical de-escalation, with closely contested odds hinging on soft-landing execution versus recession signals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$20,962Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with <$6,000 implied probability at 26.5% narrowly leading amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—and Fed dot plot signaling just one rate cut from current 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range due to war-related inflation risks in the Middle East. Strong Q1 earnings beats propelled recent record highs near 7,165, bolstering 18-20% odds for $6,500-$7,500 bands on 17% full-year 2026 EPS growth consensus, yet elevated forward P/E of 19.8 tempers enthusiasm. Key differentiators include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC, and geopolitical de-escalation, with closely contested odds hinging on soft-landing execution versus recession signals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$20,962Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment for S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with <$6,000 implied probability at 26.5% narrowly leading amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—and Fed dot plot signaling just one rate cut from current 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range due to war-related inflation risks in the Middle East. Strong Q1 earnings beats propelled recent record highs near 7,165, bolstering 18-20% odds for $6,500-$7,500 bands on 17% full-year 2026 EPS growth consensus, yet elevated forward P/E of 19.8 tempers enthusiasm. Key differentiators include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC, and geopolitical de-escalation, with closely contested odds hinging on soft-landing execution versus recession signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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