Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires Congress to pass targeted legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to empower presidential induction authority, a step separate from the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration provisions effective in December. The United States has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973 with no active draft, and current defense policy maintains bipartisan support for that structure absent a national emergency or major escalation. No legislative proposals for induction authority have advanced in 2026, and force posture planning continues without conscription mechanisms. Late-year developments such as sudden congressional action amid unforeseen conflict could still shift odds, though procedural timelines and political consensus make such authorization unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires Congress to pass targeted legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to empower presidential induction authority, a step separate from the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration provisions effective in December. The United States has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973 with no active draft, and current defense policy maintains bipartisan support for that structure absent a national emergency or major escalation. No legislative proposals for induction authority have advanced in 2026, and force posture planning continues without conscription mechanisms. Late-year developments such as sudden congressional action amid unforeseen conflict could still shift odds, though procedural timelines and political consensus make such authorization unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volumen
$521,368Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires Congress to pass targeted legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to empower presidential induction authority, a step separate from the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration provisions effective in December. The United States has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973 with no active draft, and current defense policy maintains bipartisan support for that structure absent a national emergency or major escalation. No legislative proposals for induction authority have advanced in 2026, and force posture planning continues without conscription mechanisms. Late-year developments such as sudden congressional action amid unforeseen conflict could still shift odds, though procedural timelines and political consensus make such authorization unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$521,368Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires Congress to pass targeted legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to empower presidential induction authority, a step separate from the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration provisions effective in December. The United States has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973 with no active draft, and current defense policy maintains bipartisan support for that structure absent a national emergency or major escalation. No legislative proposals for induction authority have advanced in 2026, and force posture planning continues without conscription mechanisms. Late-year developments such as sudden congressional action amid unforeseen conflict could still shift odds, though procedural timelines and political consensus make such authorization unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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