Recent polls, including a Neighborhood Research survey from April 1-3 showing 45% yes to 46% no among likely voters and a Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-47 yes, reflect a razor-thin contest for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative congressional redistricting through 2030. Trader consensus on tightly clustered odds stems from this polling deadlock amid low-turnout special election dynamics, with early voting turnout stronger in Republican-leaning districts—over 16% in some rural areas versus under 5% in key Northern Virginia suburbs—potentially favoring no votes despite Democrats' $33 million spending edge over Republicans' $3 million. Separation could arise from late Democratic mobilization via ads and endorsements like Barack Obama's robocalls, final turnout surges before early voting closes April 18, or shifts among 9% undecideds ahead of the April 21 election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 15%+ 44%
Pass 6-9% 44%
Pass 12-15% 42%
Pass 3-6% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 abr 2026
Pass 15%+
44%
Pass 12-15%
42%
Pass 9-12%
34%
Pass 6-9%
44%
Pass 3-6%
42%
Pass <3%
40%
No Pass
38%
Pass 15%+ 44%
Pass 6-9% 44%
Pass 12-15% 42%
Pass 3-6% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 abr 2026
Pass 15%+
$10 Vol.
44%
Pass 12-15%
$0 Vol.
42%
Pass 9-12%
$0 Vol.
34%
Pass 6-9%
$5 Vol.
44%
Pass 3-6%
$0 Vol.
42%
Pass <3%
$0 Vol.
40%
No Pass
$0 Vol.
38%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Neighborhood Research survey from April 1-3 showing 45% yes to 46% no among likely voters and a Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-47 yes, reflect a razor-thin contest for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative congressional redistricting through 2030. Trader consensus on tightly clustered odds stems from this polling deadlock amid low-turnout special election dynamics, with early voting turnout stronger in Republican-leaning districts—over 16% in some rural areas versus under 5% in key Northern Virginia suburbs—potentially favoring no votes despite Democrats' $33 million spending edge over Republicans' $3 million. Separation could arise from late Democratic mobilization via ads and endorsements like Barack Obama's robocalls, final turnout surges before early voting closes April 18, or shifts among 9% undecideds ahead of the April 21 election day.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Volumen
$15Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Neighborhood Research survey from April 1-3 showing 45% yes to 46% no among likely voters and a Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-47 yes, reflect a razor-thin contest for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative congressional redistricting through 2030. Trader consensus on tightly clustered odds stems from this polling deadlock amid low-turnout special election dynamics, with early voting turnout stronger in Republican-leaning districts—over 16% in some rural areas versus under 5% in key Northern Virginia suburbs—potentially favoring no votes despite Democrats' $33 million spending edge over Republicans' $3 million. Separation could arise from late Democratic mobilization via ads and endorsements like Barack Obama's robocalls, final turnout surges before early voting closes April 18, or shifts among 9% undecideds ahead of the April 21 election day.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volumen
$15Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Neighborhood Research survey from April 1-3 showing 45% yes to 46% no among likely voters and a Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-47 yes, reflect a razor-thin contest for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative congressional redistricting through 2030. Trader consensus on tightly clustered odds stems from this polling deadlock amid low-turnout special election dynamics, with early voting turnout stronger in Republican-leaning districts—over 16% in some rural areas versus under 5% in key Northern Virginia suburbs—potentially favoring no votes despite Democrats' $33 million spending edge over Republicans' $3 million. Separation could arise from late Democratic mobilization via ads and endorsements like Barack Obama's robocalls, final turnout surges before early voting closes April 18, or shifts among 9% undecideds ahead of the April 21 election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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