Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has stated that placing all weapons under state control is non-negotiable and must proceed through dialogue rather than force. The Lebanese Armed Forces have reported incremental progress in pilot zones south of the Litani River, including seizures of weapons and ammunition plus claims of operational control in areas such as Zawtar al Gharbiyeh. Israel continues limited operations in southern Lebanon and conditions full withdrawal on verified disarmament, while Hezbollah leadership has rejected the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework and demanded Israeli withdrawal first. No official announcement from Hezbollah’s secretary-general or recognized successors has endorsed any disarmament process. U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for October in Rome, with verification mechanisms and potential third-party monitoring under discussion. These factors shape trader assessments of the low likelihood that Hezbollah will issue a qualifying public commitment by near-term resolution dates.

Apr 25 2026

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a

April 30 rises to 4%4%

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the

Apr 23 2026

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to

April 30 dips to 0%4%

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %

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