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icon for ¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
Geopolítica·Alto El Fuego En Irán

¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?

icon for ¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
Geopolítica·Alto El Fuego En Irán

¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?

$8,451,764 Vol.

30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$8,451,764 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de septiembre

$264,261 Vol.

1%

31 de diciembre

$225,710 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-mediated framework agreement in June 2026 that ties any phased IDF redeployment from southern Lebanon to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in designated pilot zones. Israel maintains it has no territorial claims but will retain positions in the security zone until the Iran-backed group is dismantled, a condition Hezbollah has rejected. Implementation of even the initial pilot withdrawals has stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure, including a major underground complex in September 2026. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the south in mid-September to reaffirm demands for withdrawal and reconstruction, while the next round of bilateral talks was postponed until October. These dynamics keep trader focus on security conditions and verification mechanisms rather than fixed deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$8,451,764
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-mediated framework agreement in June 2026 that ties any phased IDF redeployment from southern Lebanon to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in designated pilot zones. Israel maintains it has no territorial claims but will retain positions in the security zone until the Iran-backed group is dismantled, a condition Hezbollah has rejected. Implementation of even the initial pilot withdrawals has stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure, including a major underground complex in September 2026. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the south in mid-September to reaffirm demands for withdrawal and reconstruction, while the next round of bilateral talks was postponed until October. These dynamics keep trader focus on security conditions and verification mechanisms rather than fixed deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$8,451,764
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 7%, seguido de "30 de septiembre" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?" ha generado $8.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 16, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?" es "31 de diciembre" con solo 7%, con "30 de septiembre" muy cerca con 1%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.