Skip to main content

Para operar en EE. UU., ve a polymarket.us

icon for ¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
Política·Rusia

¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?

icon for ¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
Política·Rusia

¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?

$7,652,962 Vol.

31 oct 2026
Polymarket

$7,652,962 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de octubre

$1,661,197 Vol.

8%

30 de noviembre

$4,508 Vol.

13%

31 de diciembre

$2,629,451 Vol.

24%

31 de enero de 2027

$21,335 Vol.

34%

28 de febrero de 2027

$3,547 Vol.

38%

31 de marzo de 2027

$70,926 Vol.

40%

30 de abril de 2027

$608 Vol.

45%

31 de mayo de 2027

$1,560 Vol.

53%

30 de junio de 2027

$126,586 Vol.

56%

31 de julio de 2027

$1,156 Vol.

58%

31 de agosto de 2027

$148 Vol.

61%

30 de septiembre de 2027

$708 Vol.

63%

31 de octubre de 2027

$2,973 Vol.

65%

30 de noviembre de 2027

$803 Vol.

66%

31 de diciembre de 2027

$3,949 Vol.

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-mediated diplomacy has intensified efforts to revive trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, following September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. These produced agreement in principle for October negotiations, potentially in the UAE, alongside a temporary halt in strikes on the capitals during the trip. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and other territorial concessions while rejecting broader ceasefires, whereas Ukraine seeks reliable security guarantees and reciprocity on any partial measures such as an energy infrastructure moratorium. President Trump’s recent claims of an energy truce drew cautious responses from both sides without confirmed terms. Ongoing aerial strikes and Russia’s post-election timeline for further engagement remain key variables ahead of potential UNGA meetings and winter pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,652,962
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027
Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-mediated diplomacy has intensified efforts to revive trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, following September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. These produced agreement in principle for October negotiations, potentially in the UAE, alongside a temporary halt in strikes on the capitals during the trip. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and other territorial concessions while rejecting broader ceasefires, whereas Ukraine seeks reliable security guarantees and reciprocity on any partial measures such as an energy infrastructure moratorium. President Trump’s recent claims of an energy truce drew cautious responses from both sides without confirmed terms. Ongoing aerial strikes and Russia’s post-election timeline for further engagement remain key variables ahead of potential UNGA meetings and winter pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,652,962
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027
Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for ¿Conversaciones de paz entre Rusia y Ucrania antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

¿Conversaciones de paz entre Rusia y Ucrania antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

71%
Sí
icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

14%
icon for ¿Aceptará Ucrania ceder territorio a Rusia antes de 2027?

¿Aceptará Ucrania ceder territorio a Rusia antes de 2027?

9%
Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 18 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre de 2027" con 70%, seguido de "30 de noviembre de 2027" con 66%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 70¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?" ha generado $7.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?", explora los 18 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?" es "31 de diciembre de 2027" con 70%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de noviembre de 2027" con 66%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.