**Macron’s consistent preference for parliamentary legislation over direct referendums, combined with a crowded pre-electoral calendar and recent policy actions, underpins the 93.5% “No” odds.** His second term has featured repeated public hints at referendums—on institutional reform, economic measures, or end-of-life issues—yet all major initiatives, including the assisted dying law signed in August 2026, advanced through the National Assembly and Senate. Following the Constitutional Council’s August 2026 ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban, the Élysée directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised legislative draft for spring 2027 implementation rather than invoking Article 11. With municipal elections scheduled for March 2026 and the presidential contest set for April 2027, the window for convening the electorate by year-end is narrow. Macron’s record shows a pattern of raising referendum options during parliamentary gridlock only to default to normal legislative procedures, a pattern reinforced by the absence of any qualifying presidential decree in the Journal officiel. Traders therefore price in continuity of this approach through December.