Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability against the Parti Vert du Québec winning any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election due to the party's negligible presence in recent polling aggregates and seat projections, which focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire. QS consistently captures the province's left-leaning and environmental vote share at around 10%, while PVQ registers no measurable support across regional or provincial surveys amid a fragmented contest dominated by sovereignty, economic, and identity issues. With the campaign underway and advance voting approaching, the absence of competitive ridings or candidate momentum reinforces consensus expectations. Late developments such as a targeted environmental scandal, unusually strong local candidacy, or unexpected voter realignment in a specific district remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before polling day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability against the Parti Vert du Québec winning any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election due to the party's negligible presence in recent polling aggregates and seat projections, which focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire. QS consistently captures the province's left-leaning and environmental vote share at around 10%, while PVQ registers no measurable support across regional or provincial surveys amid a fragmented contest dominated by sovereignty, economic, and identity issues. With the campaign underway and advance voting approaching, the absence of competitive ridings or candidate momentum reinforces consensus expectations. Late developments such as a targeted environmental scandal, unusually strong local candidacy, or unexpected voter realignment in a specific district remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volumen
$247Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability against the Parti Vert du Québec winning any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election due to the party's negligible presence in recent polling aggregates and seat projections, which focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire. QS consistently captures the province's left-leaning and environmental vote share at around 10%, while PVQ registers no measurable support across regional or provincial surveys amid a fragmented contest dominated by sovereignty, economic, and identity issues. With the campaign underway and advance voting approaching, the absence of competitive ridings or candidate momentum reinforces consensus expectations. Late developments such as a targeted environmental scandal, unusually strong local candidacy, or unexpected voter realignment in a specific district remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$247Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability against the Parti Vert du Québec winning any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election due to the party's negligible presence in recent polling aggregates and seat projections, which focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire. QS consistently captures the province's left-leaning and environmental vote share at around 10%, while PVQ registers no measurable support across regional or provincial surveys amid a fragmented contest dominated by sovereignty, economic, and identity issues. With the campaign underway and advance voting approaching, the absence of competitive ridings or candidate momentum reinforces consensus expectations. Late developments such as a targeted environmental scandal, unusually strong local candidacy, or unexpected voter realignment in a specific district remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before polling day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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