Recent polling averages and seat projections place the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the lead at roughly 28–30% but project only 45–47 seats on average in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) under Christine Fréchette has gained ground since the writ drop on August 27, narrowing the popular-vote gap in several late-August surveys and improving its position among francophones. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, while the PQ concentrates support in key francophone ridings. High voter fluidity, regional battlegrounds, and campaign focus on affordability, healthcare, and language policy continue to shape outcomes. Traders price the low implied probability of a PQ majority consistent with these structural and polling dynamics, with shifts in CAQ momentum or opposition consolidation as the main variables that could alter the balance before October 5.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado49% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
49% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages and seat projections place the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the lead at roughly 28–30% but project only 45–47 seats on average in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) under Christine Fréchette has gained ground since the writ drop on August 27, narrowing the popular-vote gap in several late-August surveys and improving its position among francophones. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, while the PQ concentrates support in key francophone ridings. High voter fluidity, regional battlegrounds, and campaign focus on affordability, healthcare, and language policy continue to shape outcomes. Traders price the low implied probability of a PQ majority consistent with these structural and polling dynamics, with shifts in CAQ momentum or opposition consolidation as the main variables that could alter the balance before October 5.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volumen
$71Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages and seat projections place the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the lead at roughly 28–30% but project only 45–47 seats on average in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) under Christine Fréchette has gained ground since the writ drop on August 27, narrowing the popular-vote gap in several late-August surveys and improving its position among francophones. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, while the PQ concentrates support in key francophone ridings. High voter fluidity, regional battlegrounds, and campaign focus on affordability, healthcare, and language policy continue to shape outcomes. Traders price the low implied probability of a PQ majority consistent with these structural and polling dynamics, with shifts in CAQ momentum or opposition consolidation as the main variables that could alter the balance before October 5.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$71Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages and seat projections place the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the lead at roughly 28–30% but project only 45–47 seats on average in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) under Christine Fréchette has gained ground since the writ drop on August 27, narrowing the popular-vote gap in several late-August surveys and improving its position among francophones. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, while the PQ concentrates support in key francophone ridings. High voter fluidity, regional battlegrounds, and campaign focus on affordability, healthcare, and language policy continue to shape outcomes. Traders price the low implied probability of a PQ majority consistent with these structural and polling dynamics, with shifts in CAQ momentum or opposition consolidation as the main variables that could alter the balance before October 5.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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