Federal law fixes the date for U.S. midterm elections as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered years, establishing a firm statutory requirement for congressional contests that traders view as highly resistant to alteration. With primaries underway and candidates actively campaigning across House and Senate races ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, no procedural, legislative, or institutional developments have emerged to suggest postponement. The implied probability of 97.3% on “Yes” reflects broad consensus on these structural safeguards and the absence of qualifying emergencies. Rare scenarios that could still shift odds include an act of Congress to amend the election date amid an extraordinary national crisis or unforeseen legal rulings that disrupt ballot access or certification timelines without canceling the vote itself.