**The open seat in Vanier-Les Rivières, previously held by retiring CAQ MNA Mario Asselin, has produced a tight three-way contest among PQ candidate Stéphanie Martin, CAQ’s Françoise Faverjon-Fortin, and PCQ’s Patrick Paquet, with PLQ’s Charles Hudon trailing.** Late-August 2026 projections from 338Canada and Qc125 place the leading parties within a few points of one another in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s, consistent with broader Capitale-Nationale trends where provincial PQ strength is offset by local CAQ and PCQ support. Martin’s August announcement as a well-known local journalist and author, Faverjon-Fortin’s business and governance background, and Paquet’s municipal experience have each drawn distinct voter bases. The September 17 nomination deadline and October 5 election leave limited time for further shifts, though late provincial polling movements, turnout differences, or consolidation behind one of the top three contenders could separate the field before votes are cast.