The 2026 Quebec general election for Saint-François, set for October 5, features incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition avenir Québec seeking a third term against Jacqueline Belleau of the Parti libéral du Québec, Sylvie Tanguay of the Parti québécois, and Mia Fréchette of Québec solidaire. Recent projections from late August show a closely contested race, with vote shares clustered in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s percent range across parties after adjustments for the updated electoral map. The writs were issued August 27 following the legislature's dissolution, with nominations closing September 17 and advance voting options available from late September. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this tightness, as no single candidate has established a clear lead amid divided opposition support and the riding's recent electoral volatility. Further separation could emerge from scheduled debates, updated regional polling, or turnout patterns in key areas of Sherbrooke and surrounding Estrie municipalities.