Tesla’s heavy prioritization of Cybercab production and initial unsupervised robotaxi operations in Austin has left the larger Robovan sidelined, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability that no preorders or customer orders will open before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept prototype with no confirmed manufacturing timeline, supply-chain activity, or regulatory filings, while Tesla focuses resources on scaling the two-seat Cybercab, 4680 battery output, and Optimus robots. Recent shareholder updates and factory tours have highlighted Cybercab unboxed assembly efficiencies but omitted any Robovan progress. Traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of accelerating the van’s development ahead of the year-end deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
13% probabilidad
$32,192 Vol.
$32,192 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
13% probabilidad
$32,192 Vol.
$32,192 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s heavy prioritization of Cybercab production and initial unsupervised robotaxi operations in Austin has left the larger Robovan sidelined, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability that no preorders or customer orders will open before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept prototype with no confirmed manufacturing timeline, supply-chain activity, or regulatory filings, while Tesla focuses resources on scaling the two-seat Cybercab, 4680 battery output, and Optimus robots. Recent shareholder updates and factory tours have highlighted Cybercab unboxed assembly efficiencies but omitted any Robovan progress. Traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of accelerating the van’s development ahead of the year-end deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volumen
$32,192Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s heavy prioritization of Cybercab production and initial unsupervised robotaxi operations in Austin has left the larger Robovan sidelined, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability that no preorders or customer orders will open before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept prototype with no confirmed manufacturing timeline, supply-chain activity, or regulatory filings, while Tesla focuses resources on scaling the two-seat Cybercab, 4680 battery output, and Optimus robots. Recent shareholder updates and factory tours have highlighted Cybercab unboxed assembly efficiencies but omitted any Robovan progress. Traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of accelerating the van’s development ahead of the year-end deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Tesla’s heavy prioritization of Cybercab production and initial unsupervised robotaxi operations in Austin has left the larger Robovan sidelined, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability that no preorders or customer orders will open before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept prototype with no confirmed manufacturing timeline, supply-chain activity, or regulatory filings, while Tesla focuses resources on scaling the two-seat Cybercab, 4680 battery output, and Optimus robots. Recent shareholder updates and factory tours have highlighted Cybercab unboxed assembly efficiencies but omitted any Robovan progress. Traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of accelerating the van’s development ahead of the year-end deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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