A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
>1.45ºC 45%
1.34–1.37ºC 44%
1.30–1.33ºC 44%
1.42–1.45ºC 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
44%
1.34–1.37ºC
44%
1.38–1.41ºC
41%
1.42–1.45ºC
43%
>1.45ºC
45%
>1.45ºC 45%
1.34–1.37ºC 44%
1.30–1.33ºC 44%
1.42–1.45ºC 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
44%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
44%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
43%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions