Traders assign a 73.5% implied probability to "No" on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market because 2026 has produced multiple billion-dollar events, including U.S. severe storms and wildfires, yet none have met the contract’s strict thresholds such as a Category 5 hurricane or equivalent global criteria through mid-August. Official NOAA and NHC data show an active but not extreme Atlantic season so far, with steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures that have limited rapid intensification opportunities. Remaining months carry seasonal risks from late-season tropical systems and potential Pacific typhoons, though model consensus and historical analogs suggest lower odds of crossing the required magnitude or location thresholds before year-end. Market sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with capital-weighted consensus favoring resolution to “No” absent a sudden shift in conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
27% chance
$239,664 Vol.
$239,664 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
27% chance
$239,664 Vol.
$239,664 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73.5% implied probability to "No" on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market because 2026 has produced multiple billion-dollar events, including U.S. severe storms and wildfires, yet none have met the contract’s strict thresholds such as a Category 5 hurricane or equivalent global criteria through mid-August. Official NOAA and NHC data show an active but not extreme Atlantic season so far, with steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures that have limited rapid intensification opportunities. Remaining months carry seasonal risks from late-season tropical systems and potential Pacific typhoons, though model consensus and historical analogs suggest lower odds of crossing the required magnitude or location thresholds before year-end. Market sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with capital-weighted consensus favoring resolution to “No” absent a sudden shift in conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$239,664End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73.5% implied probability to "No" on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market because 2026 has produced multiple billion-dollar events, including U.S. severe storms and wildfires, yet none have met the contract’s strict thresholds such as a Category 5 hurricane or equivalent global criteria through mid-August. Official NOAA and NHC data show an active but not extreme Atlantic season so far, with steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures that have limited rapid intensification opportunities. Remaining months carry seasonal risks from late-season tropical systems and potential Pacific typhoons, though model consensus and historical analogs suggest lower odds of crossing the required magnitude or location thresholds before year-end. Market sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with capital-weighted consensus favoring resolution to “No” absent a sudden shift in conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$239,664End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 73.5% implied probability to "No" on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market because 2026 has produced multiple billion-dollar events, including U.S. severe storms and wildfires, yet none have met the contract’s strict thresholds such as a Category 5 hurricane or equivalent global criteria through mid-August. Official NOAA and NHC data show an active but not extreme Atlantic season so far, with steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures that have limited rapid intensification opportunities. Remaining months carry seasonal risks from late-season tropical systems and potential Pacific typhoons, though model consensus and historical analogs suggest lower odds of crossing the required magnitude or location thresholds before year-end. Market sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with capital-weighted consensus favoring resolution to “No” absent a sudden shift in conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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