Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$224,025 KL.
$224,025 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$224,025 KL.
$224,025 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$224,025Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$224,025Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp