Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts (NASA fireball network), and no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (National Hurricane Center). These extremes remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, global M8.5+ quakes every 7–10 years, and VEI 6 events rarer still since 1991's Mt. Pinatubo—despite seven months left. NOAA's imminent 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and continuous seismic/volcanic monitoring represent key upcoming catalysts that could adjust market-implied odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$216,866 Vol.
$216,866 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$216,866 Vol.
$216,866 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts (NASA fireball network), and no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (National Hurricane Center). These extremes remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, global M8.5+ quakes every 7–10 years, and VEI 6 events rarer still since 1991's Mt. Pinatubo—despite seven months left. NOAA's imminent 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and continuous seismic/volcanic monitoring represent key upcoming catalysts that could adjust market-implied odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$216,866End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts (NASA fireball network), and no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (National Hurricane Center). These extremes remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, global M8.5+ quakes every 7–10 years, and VEI 6 events rarer still since 1991's Mt. Pinatubo—despite seven months left. NOAA's imminent 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and continuous seismic/volcanic monitoring represent key upcoming catalysts that could adjust market-implied odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$216,866End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts (NASA fireball network), and no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (National Hurricane Center). These extremes remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, global M8.5+ quakes every 7–10 years, and VEI 6 events rarer still since 1991's Mt. Pinatubo—despite seven months left. NOAA's imminent 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and continuous seismic/volcanic monitoring represent key upcoming catalysts that could adjust market-implied odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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