Trader consensus prices a 55% chance of "Yes"—no major specified shocks occurring through December 31, 2026—reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the year's first four months, including President Trump remaining in office, no full U.S. invasion of Iran despite recent U.S. forces entering Iranian territory and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, a stable Iranian regime, Xi Jinping securely in power, Bitcoin prices holding between $10,000 and $1 million, and no qualifying natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes. This closely contested positioning underscores simmering geopolitical tensions without escalation, alongside uncertainty from November 2026 midterms where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could resolve the market "No," while status quo diplomacy bolsters "Yes" odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$511,937 Vol.
$511,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$511,937 Vol.
$511,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 55% chance of "Yes"—no major specified shocks occurring through December 31, 2026—reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the year's first four months, including President Trump remaining in office, no full U.S. invasion of Iran despite recent U.S. forces entering Iranian territory and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, a stable Iranian regime, Xi Jinping securely in power, Bitcoin prices holding between $10,000 and $1 million, and no qualifying natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes. This closely contested positioning underscores simmering geopolitical tensions without escalation, alongside uncertainty from November 2026 midterms where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could resolve the market "No," while status quo diplomacy bolsters "Yes" odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$511,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 55% chance of "Yes"—no major specified shocks occurring through December 31, 2026—reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the year's first four months, including President Trump remaining in office, no full U.S. invasion of Iran despite recent U.S. forces entering Iranian territory and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, a stable Iranian regime, Xi Jinping securely in power, Bitcoin prices holding between $10,000 and $1 million, and no qualifying natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes. This closely contested positioning underscores simmering geopolitical tensions without escalation, alongside uncertainty from November 2026 midterms where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could resolve the market "No," while status quo diplomacy bolsters "Yes" odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$511,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 55% chance of "Yes"—no major specified shocks occurring through December 31, 2026—reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the year's first four months, including President Trump remaining in office, no full U.S. invasion of Iran despite recent U.S. forces entering Iranian territory and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, a stable Iranian regime, Xi Jinping securely in power, Bitcoin prices holding between $10,000 and $1 million, and no qualifying natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes. This closely contested positioning underscores simmering geopolitical tensions without escalation, alongside uncertainty from November 2026 midterms where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could resolve the market "No," while status quo diplomacy bolsters "Yes" odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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