Traders assign a 72% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because scheduled elections and diplomatic forums through mid-year have produced limited disruption so far. Armenia's June parliamentary vote returned the incumbent Civil Contract party with a clear plurality, Ethiopia's general election reinforced the ruling coalition, and Kosovo's parliamentary contest left the leading party in a plurality position without immediate coalition collapse. Upcoming milestones such as the G7 Leaders Summit and the UN General Assembly opening later in the year appear priced in as routine rather than catalysts for leadership changes, ceasefires, or other resolution triggers. With no major new escalations or resignations confirmed in recent weeks, the market reflects consensus that the remaining calendar is unlikely to meet typical "something happens" thresholds by year-end.