Trader consensus on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 55.5% Yes reflects the absence of any resolution triggers through late April, including President Trump remaining in office, no full U.S. invasion of Iran despite recent U.S. forces entering the country and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, stable Iranian regime, Xi Jinping in power, Bitcoin price holding between $10,000 and $1 million, and no major disasters like 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions. This status quo has boosted Yes odds amid de-escalation signals in U.S.-Iran tensions over the past week, but risks persist from 2026 midterms potentially delivering Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Russia-NATO escalation, China-Taiwan invasion threats, or crypto volatility through year-end resolution on December 31.