No at 70% aligns with the historical rate of 5-kiloton or larger airbursts occurring roughly once every one to two years, based on bolide records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Ongoing surveys confirm no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with all tracked 2026 close approaches passing safely at lunar distances or beyond. A statistically significant Q1 surge in smaller fireballs has not yielded any events nearing the 5 kt energy threshold, and continuous radar-optical monitoring through year-end will further reduce uncertainty around undetected objects. This combination of baseline frequency, absence of catalogued threats, and recent observational data supports trader consensus favoring no event this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
$305,695 Vol.
$305,695 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$305,695 Vol.
$305,695 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 70% aligns with the historical rate of 5-kiloton or larger airbursts occurring roughly once every one to two years, based on bolide records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Ongoing surveys confirm no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with all tracked 2026 close approaches passing safely at lunar distances or beyond. A statistically significant Q1 surge in smaller fireballs has not yielded any events nearing the 5 kt energy threshold, and continuous radar-optical monitoring through year-end will further reduce uncertainty around undetected objects. This combination of baseline frequency, absence of catalogued threats, and recent observational data supports trader consensus favoring no event this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$305,695Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 70% aligns with the historical rate of 5-kiloton or larger airbursts occurring roughly once every one to two years, based on bolide records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Ongoing surveys confirm no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with all tracked 2026 close approaches passing safely at lunar distances or beyond. A statistically significant Q1 surge in smaller fireballs has not yielded any events nearing the 5 kt energy threshold, and continuous radar-optical monitoring through year-end will further reduce uncertainty around undetected objects. This combination of baseline frequency, absence of catalogued threats, and recent observational data supports trader consensus favoring no event this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$305,695Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 70% aligns with the historical rate of 5-kiloton or larger airbursts occurring roughly once every one to two years, based on bolide records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Ongoing surveys confirm no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with all tracked 2026 close approaches passing safely at lunar distances or beyond. A statistically significant Q1 surge in smaller fireballs has not yielded any events nearing the 5 kt energy threshold, and continuous radar-optical monitoring through year-end will further reduce uncertainty around undetected objects. This combination of baseline frequency, absence of catalogued threats, and recent observational data supports trader consensus favoring no event this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes