**Trader consensus on no 5 kt meteor strike in 2026 at 66% reflects the low historical frequency of 5–10 meter near-Earth objects capable of releasing that energy, with long-term bolide data indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** No known asteroids pose an impact risk that year, and ongoing NASA CNEOS monitoring plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have focused on 2032 or later dates without elevating 2026 probabilities. Small fireballs recorded in early 2026 released far less energy, consistent with baseline rates rather than an uptick. Enhanced surveys continue to reduce uncertainty, but the absence of confirmed threats or model shifts keeps the market-implied odds aligned with climatological rarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$302,471 Vol.
$302,471 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$302,471 Vol.
$302,471 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus on no 5 kt meteor strike in 2026 at 66% reflects the low historical frequency of 5–10 meter near-Earth objects capable of releasing that energy, with long-term bolide data indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** No known asteroids pose an impact risk that year, and ongoing NASA CNEOS monitoring plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have focused on 2032 or later dates without elevating 2026 probabilities. Small fireballs recorded in early 2026 released far less energy, consistent with baseline rates rather than an uptick. Enhanced surveys continue to reduce uncertainty, but the absence of confirmed threats or model shifts keeps the market-implied odds aligned with climatological rarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$302,471Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus on no 5 kt meteor strike in 2026 at 66% reflects the low historical frequency of 5–10 meter near-Earth objects capable of releasing that energy, with long-term bolide data indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** No known asteroids pose an impact risk that year, and ongoing NASA CNEOS monitoring plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have focused on 2032 or later dates without elevating 2026 probabilities. Small fireballs recorded in early 2026 released far less energy, consistent with baseline rates rather than an uptick. Enhanced surveys continue to reduce uncertainty, but the absence of confirmed threats or model shifts keeps the market-implied odds aligned with climatological rarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$302,471Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on no 5 kt meteor strike in 2026 at 66% reflects the low historical frequency of 5–10 meter near-Earth objects capable of releasing that energy, with long-term bolide data indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** No known asteroids pose an impact risk that year, and ongoing NASA CNEOS monitoring plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have focused on 2032 or later dates without elevating 2026 probabilities. Small fireballs recorded in early 2026 released far less energy, consistent with baseline rates rather than an uptick. Enhanced surveys continue to reduce uncertainty, but the absence of confirmed threats or model shifts keeps the market-implied odds aligned with climatological rarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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