No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst carry impact trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring. This keeps market-implied odds for “No” at 74.5%, consistent with historical base rates showing multi-kiloton bolides occur only once every few years globally. Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Ohio event releasing roughly 0.25 kt, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. With the year more than half complete and no qualifying detections logged, traders assign low probability to an undetected or late-year event meeting resolution criteria before December 31. Continued close-approach updates and infrasound network reports remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% chance
$312,749 Vol.
$312,749 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
26% chance
$312,749 Vol.
$312,749 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst carry impact trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring. This keeps market-implied odds for “No” at 74.5%, consistent with historical base rates showing multi-kiloton bolides occur only once every few years globally. Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Ohio event releasing roughly 0.25 kt, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. With the year more than half complete and no qualifying detections logged, traders assign low probability to an undetected or late-year event meeting resolution criteria before December 31. Continued close-approach updates and infrasound network reports remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,749End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst carry impact trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring. This keeps market-implied odds for “No” at 74.5%, consistent with historical base rates showing multi-kiloton bolides occur only once every few years globally. Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Ohio event releasing roughly 0.25 kt, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. With the year more than half complete and no qualifying detections logged, traders assign low probability to an undetected or late-year event meeting resolution criteria before December 31. Continued close-approach updates and infrasound network reports remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,749End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst carry impact trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring. This keeps market-implied odds for “No” at 74.5%, consistent with historical base rates showing multi-kiloton bolides occur only once every few years globally. Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Ohio event releasing roughly 0.25 kt, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. With the year more than half complete and no qualifying detections logged, traders assign low probability to an undetected or late-year event meeting resolution criteria before December 31. Continued close-approach updates and infrasound network reports remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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