No at 63% reflects the absence of any known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring. Continuous sky surveys have identified only small, non-threatening objects making close approaches this year, such as 2026 JH2 at a safe distance, with no objects on collision courses. While Q1 2026 saw a statistically elevated rate of small fireballs detectable by networks like the American Meteor Society, these events released far less energy and align with the normal influx of meter-scale meteoroids rather than signaling larger threats. Historical impact frequencies place a 5kt-class event roughly once every few decades globally, and current observational completeness for objects above a few meters supports the market’s modest implied probability for an occurrence this year.