USGS data establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system is long enough to generate them, with the physical upper limit around 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction zones such as Chile’s. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, and 2026 activity has peaked at only 7.8, consistent with historical patterns showing no M9+ events in recent decades. With roughly six months left before 2027, the near-term window further reduces any chance of an unprecedented multi-segment rupture. Trader consensus at 95.5% “No” reflects this tectonic reality, though an unforeseen revision in fault-length estimates or an extreme, low-probability cascade could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution.